Credible secret negotiations between the Tigray Government (TG)

Credible reports indicate that there have been secret negotiations between the Tigray Government (TG) and Abiy in Djibouti facilitated by the good offices of the U.S. The TG has all but confirmed that such talks are ongoing, but there has been no official acknowledgement of the secret talks on the part of Abiy. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that such talks have been held. What we don’t know is what issues have been discussed and what the parties agreed to, if any.

In any case, here are what I believe were the main items raised during the talks: (1) Immediate cessation of hostilities; (2) Unhindered access to humanitarian assistance; (3) Immediate restoration of basic services in Tigray; (4) Withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopia and the withdrawal of TDF forces from territories they occupied recently; (5) Withdrawal of all forces from West Tigray and going back to the status quo ante; and (6) A mutually agreed ceasefire.

With that being said, it should be clear that some of the items above, including the unfettered access to humanitarian assistance and the restoration of basic services, are non-negotiable; Abiy cannot condition such measures on any other action on the part of the GT since lifting the blockade is both the legal and moral obligation of the former. By the same token, the issue of the withdrawal of Issayas’ occupying forces from Tigray is a must as it is not only illegal, but is also what is fueling and prolonging the war. Also, the withdrawal of Abiy’s forces from West Tigray is absolutely necessary for there to be peace. It is just not possible to have peace while Tigray territory is under occupation after ethnically cleansing over a million people from their homes. In short, there cannot be an agreement to cease fire unless and until Abiy can agree to the foregoing measures.

Understandably, some Abiy fans and willing slaves of the Issayas regime would prefer that the talks be conducted without any “pre-conditions,” which means that Tigray should accept the status quo before any cessation of hostilities. Well, that is a non-starter and willl never happen. After all, why agree to talks if that is what Abiy wants?

In my view, there are a number of reasons why Abiy has agreed to sit and talk. Among the reasons are: (1) Tremendous pressure from the international community, particularly the US, as can be evidenced from the renewal of the Presidential Executive Order and the prospect of other sanctions that can follow as a result; (2) The devastating loss his forces are sustaining in the recent war; (3) The precipitous loss of enthusiasm for the war in the rest of Ethiopia; and (4) The undeniable toll the war has exacted on the Ethiopian economy.

For these reasons, I believe that the GT is in a stronger negotiating position and has no reason to give in to any pre-conditions or delaying tactics that Abiy might come up with. For Tigray, what needs to be done is crystal clear: End the blockade, order Issayas out from Ethiopia, return the occupied territories in west, northern and easter Tigray. It is only then and then that there could be a ceasefire and a return to ferret out what Tigray’s relations with the rest of Ethiopia would be. If you ask me how likely it is for Abiy to agree to Tigray’s demands, all I can say is that anything goes. It all depends on who he chooses to listen to. Things will be bad if he chooses to hear the voices of the handful hateful but vocal traitors who unashamedly beg a foreign power to kill their fellow citizens. But if he chooses to hear what people are saying, the prospect of peace in this new year is very high. Fingers crossed!

Again, Happy New Year everybody.