The more things change the more they stay the same
The more things change the more they stay the same. Most hoped that the Pretoria agreement would mark the end of the siege in Tigray and the return of life back to normal. To a limited extent, that has happened, albeit in a very sluggish way. Humanitarian assistance has resumed, basic services have been restored gradually, and there is a sense of relief that the guns might have been silenced for good. However, a lot remains to be done. For instance, banking has not started to provide full services as many customers are not allowed to withdraw their own money, age restrictions are in place preventing airline passengers who bought tickets to travel from Tigray to Addis Ababa, road transportation within Tigray remains limited, and, most importantly, a large chunk of Tigray is still under Issayas' and Fano's brutal occupation. Additionally, thousands of former members of the Ethiopian Defense Forces (EDF) and hundreds of civilians, including former leaders of the TPLF, are still languishing in prison simply on account of their ethnicity. What one hears from the authorities in Addis Ababa is that things will improve gradually. That may well be, but it is appropriate to ask why it is taking so much time to address these issues. The onus is on the powers to be in Addis Ababa to live up to their commitments as per the Pretoria agreement that they vowed to implement with the whole international community watching.
The most perplexing problem of all is the issue of the continued presence of Eritrean troops in west, northwest, and east Tigray. Initially, there were reports that Eritrean troops may have started withdrawing from occupied territories, but that story has turned out to be not true. It appears that the Eritrean troops are simply relocating from one locality to another (sometimes wearing uniforms belonging to EDF) in order to deceive the international community. That is very foolish on their part - the whole world knows that they are still in Tigray. Forget Issayas as nobody seriously thinks that he cares about international law. But where is the Abiy regime and why is it feigning ignorance? There can be only two explanations: (1) Behind the scenes, there is an agreement between Issayas and Abiy for the latter's troops to stay in Tigray; or (2) Abiy does not have the power to tell Issayas to his face that his troops must leave Tigray. I cannot see any other reason why Eritrean troops, who have been accused of serious atrocities, should be allowed to stay in Tigray, particularly after the Pretoria agreement which provides for the withdrawal of foreign forces. So, what should be done now?
Ideally, the Abiy regime must tell the Eritrean troops to leave, provided he has the political gut to do so. True, Issayas is not the kind of person who cares about domestic or international opinion. However, if he continues to occupy Ethiopian territory after being told to leave, then the continued presence of Eritrean troops would be considered a violation of Ethiopian sovereignty. That would require military action in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. (Incidentally, I am not calling for war. I am simply explaining that Ethiopia reserves that option if Issayas refuses to withdraw his troops). As things stand now, it is highly unlikely that we need to go there, though.
The other option - which I believe is more doable - is to continue to exert maximum international pressure on both Issayas and Abiy. First, the AU Verification team has to discharge its obligation to see to it that Eritrean troops withdraw from Tigray verifiably. However, that alone, although necessary, is not sufficient. AU's call has to be supplemented by a real threat from the international community. Such measures will definitely serve as a deterrent. For example, encouraged by the prospect of peace, the US, the UK, and the EU, are reportedly gearing towards normalization of relations with Ethiopia. Western governments are seriously considering resuming financial support for Ethiopia - which was frozen during the Tigray war - both bilaterally and multilaterally via the World Bank and the IMF. These governments must be told not to jump the gun prematurely. Ethiopia must not be allowed to benefit from such financial assistance at this stage. Verifiable withdrawal of Eritrean troops must be a condition precedent to any normalization of relations. Given that Ethiopia is in dire economic distress, it is impossible for Abiy to ignore such a warning.
The other thorny issue is an internal matter, namely, the continued occupation of Amhara forces in west and south Tigray. This problem is intrinsically intertwined with the Eritrean occupation. Such forces are betting that Eritrea will be on their side in their quest for holding on to their occupation. Getting rid of Eritrea from the picture will obviously be a first welcome step in seeking a peaceful resolution of the problem. That said, though, the mood in the Amhara region is worrisome, with some openly calling for a renewed war. In my view, war is not and will not be a solution. There is no reason why the dispute cannot be resolved by dialogue if reason and commonsense prevail.
In closing, I suggest that the Abiy regime expedite confidence-building measures instead of reverting to bad habits. I also call on the international community to keep the pressure on for Abiy to abide by the Pretoria agreement and its implementation in good faith.
Merry Christmas everybody!!!
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