Let us face it, not many in Tigray or the diaspora about pretoria
Let us face it, not many in Tigray or the diaspora are happy about the Pretoria agreement. Some are simply confused about what is in the agreement, while others claim they understand what is in the agreement but believe that it is essentially a surrender pact. The latter point to Article 6 of the agreement, which calls for disarmament, demobilzation, and reintegration(DDR) of the TDF. In addition, they are enraged that there will be a Provisional Government in Tigray until elections are held since it is not clear who will be in that government. More importantly, their displeasure is based on what measures should be taken first. So far, the war has not stopped, Eritrean and Amhara forces are still occupying Tigray territory, and there is no sign of humanitarian assistance reaching Tigray. To disarm the TDF under such circumstances is surely a recipe for disaster. Therefore, I share the concerns of those who are opposed to such provisions in the agreement. However, I sincerely believe that the overall spirit of the agreement is not as bad as it looks, provided that the foregoing concerns are addressed in a timely manner. Here is why:
The people of Tigray have proven their resilience by fighting heroically against all odds for their rights and dignity for two years. Nobody would take that from Tigray. However, one should not forget that war is not an end by itself. As they say, war is the continuation of politics by other means. War should therefore be avoided if you can achieve your goals through peaceful means. Tigray is not destined to keep fighting indefinitely. Let us remember that nearly a tenth of the Tigray population has perished due to the direct or indirect consequences of the war, according to Belgian researchers. This number is certain to grow unless the war stops. Tigray is still without food, medicine, and basic services. Children are not going to school and all economic activities have come to a halt. Therefore, an agreement to cease hostilities, ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches Tigray, and restore basic services is welcome news.
Additionally, let us not forget that the agreement has the full backing of the international community. Any attempt to go back to war at this point would nullify all the lobbying and activism of the Tigray diaspora. Let it also sink in that the agreement was, by and large, the product of the pressure by the west, particularly, the US. That explains why all international actors, including the US, the EU, the UN, and, of course, the AU, are applauding the agreement. Did you notice how quickly the IMF agreed to engage the Ethiopian government?
The other thing that we need to recognize is that you can never get all you want in negotiations. Tigray has made a number of concessions that we may not like, but the other side has also made concessions. There are many who are furious that the Constitutional order will be restored since they know what that means. That is why I don’t subscribe to the idea that the agreement was a surrender pact.
Finally, we should keep in mind that the agreement is not final - there is still room for amending some of the contentious issues, such as the ones respecting DDR and the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray as well the immediate resumption of humanitarian assistance and basic services before anything else.
While I don’t think that there won’t be bumps on the road to peace, I remain hopeful that there will be an end to this horrible war, if only because it is in neither party’s interest to continue fighting under such circumstances. What say you?
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