Abiy regime's cruel and deliberate blockade
Thanks to the Abiy regime's cruel and deliberate blockade, the humanitarian situation in Tigray is getting worse with each passing day, with a rise in suicides because people are not able to put food on the table for their families and some girls and women, including some who have degrees and had money in the bank, turning to selling their own bodies to make ends meet, as reported by the Guardian today. Also, hospitals and clinics are out of vitally needed medications and are forced to turn back patients with serious conditions, knowing that most of their patients are unlikely to survive. Children, women, and the elderly are the most affected. UNICEF reported that children in Tigray are dying of hunger through no fault of their own, and women and the elderly are left to die of hunger and disease as the social support they relied on is no more. Civil servants, some of whom have bank accounts, are denied access to their own hard-earned money and work with no pay. In short, what the people of Tigray are experiencing is a humanitarian disaster of immense proportions. And what does the international community do? Give lip service to the plight of the people of Tigray at best or just pretend that the matter is not urgent at worst. As a consequence, the people of Tigray are left to their own devices as the Abiy regime continues with its impediment to access to humanitarian assistance and is unwilling to restore basic services, such as electricity, phone, Internet, and banking.
And, as if the blockade is not bad enough, there was news this week that the Abiy regime, in contravention of its declared "humanitarian truce," shelled TDF positions in west Tigray, raising the prospect of a renewed war in Tigray. The Tigray government rightly protested this unprovoked attack, but the Abiy regime categorically denied the shelling and even issued a comical statement stating that the "peace process" is on track, although we know that there are troop movements and military exercises in the vicinity of Tigray. What the Abiy regime is doing is try to be ambiguous and leave everybody, including the international community, guessing what its real intentions are. Will anybody fall for this sinister tactic? I doubt it very much because the Abiy regime has long lost its credibility, both domestically and internationally. Nobody takes what Abiy says at face value anymore, and it is therefore natural to be skeptical about his intentions.
Given the foregoing, one can only speculate about what Abiy intends to do now. In my view, Abiy appears to be thinking to attempt to do over what he did to Tigray two years ago: Wage another round of war in Tigray. He thinks that he has rebuilt his army and has acquired enough armaments, and also believes - rightly so in this case - that Issayas and the Amhara region would join forces with him. Assuming that this is his calculation, I believe that such a move would surely be fatal. First, Abiy must know that Tigray is not what it used to be. He will face the fiercest fight ever as the war will definitely be an existential one for Tigray. Secondly, it would be foolhardy to expect that Tigray will be caught off guard this time around. I am confident that Tigray has been preparing for such an eventuality. Thirdly, despite Abiy's attempt to divide and weaken their resolve to fight, the people of Tigray are united and determined more than ever to do whatever it takes to defend themselves. Finally, and probably most importantly, Abiy declares war at his own peril as public support for his regime in the rest of Ethiopia has waned and the country's economy is shambles. For these reasons, I tend to believe that my speculation my be a little bit far-fetched, but I do not rule out Abiy's stupidity.
Again, no reasonable person should advocate for war. War is destructive and does not solve political differences. Ideally, political differences should be resolved by peaceful means. To do so, however, requires a genuine commitment from both parties to a conflict. As they say, it takes two to tango.
As things stand, the ball is in Abiy's court: Does he want a renewed war and total destruction not only in Tigray, but also in the rest of Ethiopia, or does he choose the path of peace? With the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Tigray, neither party has the luxury of being complacent. Time is of the essence!!!!
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